It was eight weeks prior when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six games, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
